Trade agreements are often a topic of heated debate. Some critics argue that the U.S. enters into deals that seem unbalanced—granting favorable terms to foreign countries while American businesses face steep competition. But what if these agreements serve a larger purpose beyond economics?

Trade policies don’t exist in isolation. They’re not just about tariffs, exports, and market access; they are often intertwined with national security, diplomatic relationships, and geopolitical strategy. What may seem like an uneven trade deal on paper could, in reality, be a key piece of a much larger negotiation—one that extends beyond commerce into global influence and stability.

What We Know…

Trade as a Strategic Lever

When policymakers negotiate trade agreements, economic interests are only one part of the equation. National security, diplomatic leverage, and long-term strategic goals often shape these deals as well.

Take the Philippines, for instance. Over the years, the U.S. has offered preferential trade terms that some consider overly generous. However, in exchange, the U.S. has secured critical military access to bases in the region—an invaluable strategic foothold in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in balancing China’s influence.

Similarly, the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) has been criticized for benefiting South Korean industries, especially in automotive manufacturing. Yet beyond trade, the U.S. maintains nearly 30,000 troops in South Korea, strengthening its security presence in East Asia while benefiting from advanced intelligence-sharing agreements.

Are “Unfair” Trade Deals Actually Geopolitical Investments?

For business owners, policymakers, and trade professionals, understanding the full scope of these agreements is crucial. While a deal might appear to favor another country in economic terms, it often supports broader U.S. interests, including defense cooperation, diplomatic alliances, and geopolitical stability.

Would the U.S. prefer a marginally better trade balance or a secure network of military bases worldwide? In many cases, strategic interests take precedence over immediate economic advantages.

The Case for Reviewing Trade Agreements

That said, trade policies should evolve with the times. The global economy has changed dramatically in recent years, with shifts in e-commerce, supply chains, and emerging markets reshaping the way business is conducted. Yet many existing trade agreements operate under frameworks designed for a different era.

One pressing issue is the de minimis rule, which allows low-value shipments to enter the U.S. duty-free. While originally intended to ease trade facilitation, the explosion of e-commerce has turned this into a loophole that enables a high volume of untaxed imports. Managing this challenge is complex—customs systems weren’t built to handle such a high transaction count—but it’s an issue that deserves careful examination.

Regularly reviewing trade agreements is essential to ensure they align with today’s economic realities. However, reform should be strategic, not reactionary. Abrupt, sweeping changes could disrupt businesses and strain international relationships, leading to unintended consequences.

The Bottom Line

Trade agreements are about more than just economic give-and-take. Many serve as strategic tools that reinforce national security, global influence, and diplomatic ties. While it’s important to ensure fair trade policies, it’s equally critical to recognize the broader role these agreements play in shaping international relations.

As the world of trade continues to evolve—driven by digital commerce, shifting supply chains, and emerging security concerns—periodic reviews of trade policies are necessary. The key is thoughtful, measured updates that maintain balance, avoid disruption, and uphold both economic and strategic interests.

By adapting trade agreements with foresight and precision, the U.S. can foster a system that promotes both fairness and stability—for businesses, global partnerships, and long-term national interests.

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On February 14, 2025, the Trump administration released a list of derivative products that will be subject to a 25% tariff under Section 232 steel and aluminum duties. These products will be officially listed in the Federal Register today Tuesday, February 18, 2025. The specific HTS subheadings for affected steel and aluminum items can be found [here] (steel) and [here] (aluminum).

What We Know…

Affected Products
The new tariffs will impact a wide range of downstream goods, including:

  • Most of Chapter 73, covering items such as gazebos, canopies, and similar structures
  • Certain household aluminum products
  • Steel and aluminum furniture (HTS 9403.20.00)
  • Parts for lighting fixtures (HTS 9405.99.40)
  • Stoves, ranges, barbecues, and related components (HTS 7321)
  • Steel and aluminum cookware
  • Aluminum doors, windows, and frames (HTS 7610.10.00)
  • Parts for electric water heaters, hair dryers, and similar appliances (HTS 8516.90.8050)
  • Some sporting and exercise equipment (HTS 9506, 9507).

Implementation Timeline

These tariffs will not take effect until the Secretary of Commerce confirms that systems are in place to collect the duties. Currently, there is no set deadline for this certification. Additional details on the broader steel and aluminum tariff updates can be found in our previous alert.

The Commerce Department will also develop a process to identify additional derivative products that may be subject to the 25% tariff. Domestic manufacturers can request the inclusion of specific items.

How the Tariffs Will Apply

  • For products classified under Chapter 73 or 76, the 25% tariff applies to the full product value.
  • For products classified outside these chapters, the tariff will apply only to the steel or aluminum content, not the entire product. However, the notices do not clarify how this content value should be calculated.
    The tariff applies only to products classified under the designated HTS subheadings. Items that contain steel or aluminum but fall outside these classifications will not be affected.

Cumulative Duties

  • The 25% tariffs will be applied in addition to any other applicable duties. For example, a steel cookware item classified under HTS 7323.93.0045 will face:
  • A standard MFN duty of 2%
  • 25% Section 232 tariffs
  • An additional 10% tariff if imported from China

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The global logistics stage in early 2025 is anything but predictable—freight rates are seesawing, geopolitical flashpoints are redrawing trade routes, and carriers are engaged in a high-stakes game of capacity control. Transpacific shipping rates are slipping post-Lunar New Year, yet volatility looms as alliance shake-ups and Red Sea disruptions ripple through supply chains. In Europe, labor strikes and rerouted vessels are driving up costs, while South American trade lanes feel the pinch of capacity constraints. Meanwhile, air freight remains the industry’s wildcard, with e-commerce demand fueling steady rate hikes. In this shifting landscape, agility isn’t just an advantage—it’s a necessity.

MARKET WATCH

Ocean Freight

Transpacific Rate Market and Trends

Transpacific Rates and Market Dynamics: 
As of early February 2025, transpacific shipping rates have experienced a decline. Specifically, Asia-U.S. West Coast prices decreased by around 3% while Asia-U.S. East Coast prices fell by around 1%.
These reductions are attributed to decreased demand following the Lunar New Year and adjustments in carrier capacity.
Carrier Strategy: 
Carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings and strategic alliances to maintain stability. Despite strong volumes leading up to the Lunar New Year, freight rates have declined, indicating ongoing volatility influenced by service disruptions from alliance reshuffling and developments in the Red Sea.

North and South American Rate Trends

North America:

  • WCNA saw a slight rate increase, being influenced by an attempt to maintain rates ahead of the contract season.
  • ECNA rates decreased, with a quite market in China affecting the demand.
  • The North American container market has seen a decline in cargo volumes following the Lunar New Year holidays, leading to eased congestion at Chinese and Korean ports. The total vessel capacity waiting at anchorages in North Asia has dropped by over 50% from its recent peak in January. In the past two weeks, 30% to 60% of the regular capacity departing from Chinese ports has been blanked, significantly slowing vessel activity and enabling ports to recover from the recent surge in volumes.

North Asia to East & West Coast South America (WCSA/ECSA):
Trade between North Asia and the WCSA has remained stable. However, capacity constraints and rising operational costs have led to elevated rates. Shippers are advised to plan shipments well in advance to secure space and manage costs effectively.

European & APAC Updates

Europe:
European ports are facing challenges due to labor strikes and the Red Sea crisis. These disruptions have led to delays and increased costs. Shippers should monitor the situation closely and consider flexible routing options to mitigate potential impacts.

APAC:

East & West Coast North America (ECNA/WCNA):
Freight rates from Southeast Asia to North America declined due to sluggish cargo volumes and operational delays.

Middle East & Indian Subcontinent:
Rates from India to East Coast North America decreased, and there was a decline in West Coast India to Middle East freight rates due to market overcapacity.

Air Freight

Spot Rates:

  • Global air cargo spot rates have remained elevated, with a 7% year-on-year increase observed in January 2025. This trend is driven by strong e-commerce demand and capacity constraints.

Yearly Trends:

  • Over the past year, the air freight market has experienced double-digit growth in demand. While the market remains robust, stakeholders are cautious due to potential geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties that could impact future performance.

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đź“° IN OTHER NEWS…

Shanghai Port Handled Record 5 Million TEU in January as U.S. Imports Surge

Officials in Shanghai are hailing a new record throughput for the port in January 2025 while saying that the ports are a “barometer” of foreign trade. It comes after a record volume at the port in 2024 and is the fourth monthly volume record set in the past 40 months as Shanghai continues to be the world’s busiest container port.
Read More

Trump threatens new tariffs in bid to reshape trade.

WASHINGTON, Feb 13 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump has tasked his economics team with devising plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes U.S. imports, raising the risk of a global trade war with American friends and foes.
Read More

Trump pauses De Minimus repeal as packages pile up at US Customs

WASHINGTON/LONDON/LOS ANGELES, Feb 7 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump paused his administration’s repeal of duty-free treatment of low-cost packages from China on Friday, giving the Commerce Department time to make the order workable, after the rapid change created disruptions for customs inspectors, postal and delivery services and online retailers.
Read More

Strikes, storms and record volumes adding to North Europe port delays

The significant volumes of exports that left China in December are continuing to arrive at European ports, compounding existing congestion caused by a series of severe winter storms and labor action at key hubs.
Read More

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The U.S. slapped a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, and China wasted no time responding.

Their countermeasures? Tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. energy and industrial products, export controls on key metals, and even targeting American firms like Illumina and PVH Group. Meanwhile, an antitrust investigation into Google signals broader tensions beyond just trade.

What We Know…

Canada & Mexico Get a Reprieve

While China and the U.S. square off, Canada and Mexico dodged immediate tariff hikes—for now. In exchange for tighter border security and efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking, both countries secured a 30-day pause on planned U.S. tariffs.

🌎 What This Means
China’s response—targeting roughly $20 billion in trade vs. the U.S.’s $450 billion—suggests a calculated rather than aggressive escalation. Meanwhile, the U.S. is clearly using tariffs as a negotiation tool, not just an economic penalty.

🔍 What’s Next?
With global supply chains in flux and geopolitical tensions rising, businesses need to stay agile. Will China escalate further? Will Canada and Mexico’s deals hold? And how will U.S. companies navigate these shifting trade dynamics?

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On February 1, 2025 President Trump announced significant trade tariffs against the U.S three largest trading partners Canada, Mexico, and China through Executive Orders. While additional details are expected to be refined in the coming days here are some Key Developments:

What We Know…

U.S. Tariffs (Effective Feb 4, 2025)

  • Canada: 25% tariff on all imports (except Canadian energy, which faces 10%)
  • China: 10% additional tariff on all imports
  • Exemptions: Cargo loaded before Feb 1st is not subject to tariffs.
  • De Minimis Rule: Abolished for Canada (unclear for Mexico & China)
  • Mexico: Potential 25% tariff on hold – Deal struck between President Trump & Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum:
    • Hold on new Tariffs for one month while negotiations continue regarding other topics such as Drug & Weapons trafficking continue.

Trade Retaliations:

Canada:

  • 25% tariffs on $30B in U.S. goods starting Feb 4th.
  • Expands to $155B in U.S. goods after 3 weeks.
  • Targets: Alcohol, produce, clothing, shoes, appliances, furniture, lumber, and more…

Mexico:

  • Potential tariff & non-tariff retaliatory measures, but details pending.

China:

  • Filing a case with the World Trade Organization (WTO)
  • Promises “corresponding countermeasures”

President Trump’s executive orders allow for further tariff increases if Canada, Mexico, or China retaliate.

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Running into 2025 the Global Logistics market continues to navigate a complex landscape of changes, shaped by shifting costs, new alliances, and geopolitical tensions. The recent tariff increases between Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. are adding pressure to North American trade flows, while the formation of the Gemini Alliance—a major carrier collaboration—aims to reshape ocean freight dynamics. Meanwhile, ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea due to regional conflicts continue to impact global shipping routes, forcing carriers to reroute vessels and driving up costs. With transpacific rates fluctuating, air cargo demand surging, and capacity constraints tightening across key trade lanes, shippers must stay agile and plan strategically to mitigate risks and control costs.

MARKET WATCH

Ocean Freight

Transpacific Rate Market and Trends

Transpacific Rates and Market Dynamics: 
The transpacific trade lane has experienced increased fluctuations in spot rates due to a combination of seasonal demand and capacity adjustments by carriers. While specific rate figures for January 2025 are not provided, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions.

Carrier Strategy: 
Carriers have been actively managing capacity through blank sailings and strategic alliances to maintain rate stability. The focus has been on optimizing vessel utilization and responding to shifting demand patterns, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.

North and South American Rate Trends

North America:
  • The North American container market remains bearish with slow demand and declining volumes, exacerbated by the lead-up to the Lunar New Year. A slow recovery is expected post Lunar New Year, with rates continuing to fall until mid-February.

North Asia to East & West Coast South America (WCSA/ECSA):
Trade between North Asia and the WCSA has remained stable. However, capacity constraints and rising operational costs have led to elevated rates. Shippers are advised to plan shipments well in advance to secure space and manage costs effectively.

European & APAC Updates

Europe:
European ports are facing challenges due to labor strikes and Red Sea Crisis. These disruptions have led to delays and increased costs. Shippers should monitor the situation closely and consider flexible routing options to mitigate potential impacts.

APAC:

East & West Coast North America (ECNA/WCNA):
Rates from Southeast Asia to North America remain stable due to front-loading in December.

Middle East & Indian Subcontinent:
Rates from India to East Coast North America decreased, and there was a decline in West Coast India to Middle East freight rates due to market overcapacity.

Air Freight

Spot Rates:

  • Global air cargo spot rates have remained elevated, with a 15% year-on-year increase observed in December 2024. This trend has continued into January 2025, driven by strong e-commerce demand and capacity constraints.

Yearly Trends:

    • Over the past year, the air freight market has experienced double-digit growth in demand, with a 14-month streak of consecutive increases. While the market remains robust, stakeholders are cautious due to potential geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties that could impact future performance.

Key Topics to Watch in the Coming Months: Trump Tariffs & The Gemini Alliance

New Tariffs on Canada & Mexico Confirmed – More Tariffs on China Coming?

President-elect Trump has now confirmed significant tariffs and others pending, including:

  • (Update) Confirmed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.
    • Trump likely to announce tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday.
    • Collections will start March 1, sources say.
    • Action to curb fentanyl trade, illegal immigration may earn reprieve.
  • (Update) 10% Tariff Increase on Chinese goods by February 20th, 2025.
  • A 10–20% blanket tariff on all imports.

The tariffs are expected to impact various sectors, including the automotive industry, agriculture, and consumer goods.

Legal Authority for Presidential Tariff Implementation

  1. Congressional Delegation of Power
    Although the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to impose taxes, including tariffs, trade laws have delegated substantial authority to the president. This allows for tariff imposition without congressional approval, bypassing typical checks and balances.
  2. Mechanisms for Tariff Imposition
    • Trade Laws (1930s–1970s): Allow the president to impose tariffs to address unfair trade practices. These measures, however, require investigations and public notice periods, making immediate action less feasible.
    • International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977: Enables the president to act swiftly against “extraordinary” threats. This mechanism could bypass traditional reviews and public input, allowing rapid implementation, though its scope and legality remain debated.

While imposing tariffs immediately is complex, IEEPA provides a legal pathway for rapid action. However, the economic and diplomatic consequences of such measures require careful consideration.

How the Gemini Alliance aims to Redefine Reliability & Efficiency

In January 2024, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk announced a long-term operational collaboration named the “Gemini Cooperation,” set to commence in February 2025. This partnership aims to establish a flexible and interconnected ocean network, targeting an industry-leading schedule reliability exceeding 90% once fully implemented.

The Gemini Cooperation will feature a fleet of approximately 290 vessels, with Maersk contributing 60% and Hapag-Lloyd 40%, totaling a combined capacity of 3.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The network will consist of 29 streamlined mainline services and an extensive array of agile, interregional shuttle services, covering key trade routes such as Asia to the U.S. West and East Coasts, Asia to the Middle East, Asia to Europe, and Transatlantic trades.

A notable feature of this collaboration is the reduction in port calls per service, focusing on ports where the partners have operational control to enhance efficiency and reliability. Additionally, due to ongoing safety concerns in the Red Sea, the network will initially route vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, with plans to revert to the Red Sea route once conditions improve.

The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has approved the Gemini Cooperation Agreement, which took effect in September 2024. The FMC will monitor the alliance to ensure compliance with regulatory standards.

This strategic partnership between two of the world’s leading shipping companies is poised to set a new standard in maritime logistics, emphasizing reliability, connectivity, and sustainability.

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đź“° IN OTHER NEWS…

Explosion forces crew to abandon Hong Kong-flagged container ship in the Red Sea

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — An explosion has struck a Hong Kong-flagged container ship traveling north through the Red Sea, sparking a major fire that forced its crew to abandon the vessel, shipping industry officials said.
Read More

Maersk not returning to the Gulf of Aden for now.
STOCKHOLM, Jan 24 (Reuters) – Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), opens new tab will continue to divert vessels away from the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea and toward the southern tip of Africa despite Yemen’s Houthis announcing they will curb their attacks on ships, the container shipping giant said on Friday.
Read More

DP World says sea freight prices could fall 20% if Red Sea attacks are curbed
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 22 (Reuters) – Ships not linked to Israel could begin returning to the Red Sea in as little as two weeks, DP World’s deputy chief executive said, adding that could see freight prices “come crashing down”.
Read More

Trump set to Launch Canada, Mexico tariffs on M
WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico that would become effective on March 1, but will include a process for the countries to seek specific exemptions for certain imports, three people familiar with the planning told Reuters.
Read More

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I’ve heard it 100 times – “don’t use X carrier…They’re a nightmare.” They’re on the “banned carrier list.” Damaged/lost goods? Banned. Late delivery? Banned. They ghosted me? Banned. Ooops that’s the Banned Hinge list, but you get it. But here’s the thing while banning Ex’s is totally valid, banning carriers could be a form of self-sabotaging to your supply chain.

The Problem with Holding Grudges against Carriers…

Let’s be honest: we’ve all banned someone out of frustration. Maybe it was deserved, or maybe they were just having an off day. The truth is, that carriers aren’t static. They grow, adapt, and (hopefully) learn from their mistakes – dare I say like people! By keeping a rigid “DO NOT LOAD” list, you might be missing out on a perfectly good partner who’s gotten their act together. With Valentine’s Day around the corner, everyone deserves a second chance no?

The Hidden Costs of Your Naughty List

Having a banned carrier list can create more problems than it solves. Here’s how:

  • You’re paying more: Fewer options mean you’re stuck with whatever’s left, and they’re probably charging you top dollar.
  • You’re less nimble: When the logistics world throws you curveballs—like port congestion or wild weather—a shorter list means fewer ways to pivot.
  • You’re missing the glow-up: That carrier you banned might now have shiny new tech, better customer service, or a flawless on-time record. But you’ll never know.

Let’s Rethink This

Before you go all Taylor Swift ‘We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together’, try these alternatives:

  1. Put Them in Time-Out

    Rather than an eternal ban, give underperforming carriers a probation period. Monitor their performance and reassess after a few months. Who knows? They might surprise you.

  2. Play Detective

    Before hitting the ban hammer, dig into what went wrong. Was the issue really in their control? Maybe it was bad weather, a customs snafu, or Mercury in retrograde (again). Maybe they’re using a sub-agent network or the coverage area is not their forte. National carriers are like a restaurant – they may have a big menu, but they have “HITS” that they’re known for. Knowing the root cause can help you make fairer decisions.

  3. Track the Data

    Set up a scorecard system with KPIs like on-time delivery, damage rate, and communication. This way, decisions are based on facts, not fleeting frustration.

  4. Have “The Talk”

    If things go south, don’t ghost the carrier. Sit down, talk it out, and see if there’s a way to fix things. It’s cheaper than finding a new partner—and way less drama.

Flexibility Is Your Friend 

In logistics, adaptability is the name of the game. Revisiting your banned carrier list and giving it a little flexibility could save you money, headaches, and maybe even a few gray hairs. Turning your list into a living document instead of a stone tablet, you’ll be better equipped to handle disruptions and build stronger partnerships.

So, before you reach for the metaphorical red marker, ask yourself: Could this carrier still be worth another shot? Because in the world of logistics, even the EX’s can have a comeback.

Let’s make the world smaller!
– Nunzio & Anthony

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As we step into 2025, the global logistics market prepares for another year of transformation. Coming out of a challenging 2024, signs of stability are emerging in transpacific sea freight rates, alongside continued growth in air freight demand. However, challenges remain, with shifting NMFC classifications for US Trucking Market requiring caution and flexibility, the industry navigating blank sailings, GRI adjustments, and the evolving landscape of e-commerce. With the upcoming Chinese New Year and potential tariff increases adding further complexity to the mix, this update explores the key trends, strategies, and insights that will shape the logistics sector in the year ahead.

Key Topics to Watch in the Coming Months: Chinese New Year & Trump Tariffs

Key Dates for Chinese New Year 2025

  • January 22-28, 2025: Pre-holiday production rush begins.
  • January 29, 2025: Chinese New Year Eve—factory shutdowns commence.
  • January 30 – February 12, 2025: Official holiday period.
  • Mid to Late February 2025: Gradual resumption of operations.

Key Impacts of Chinese New Year on Logistics

  1. Factory Shutdowns and Production Halts
    Many factories in China close for an extended period starting around January 22, 2025, with some not fully resuming operations until mid-February. This creates a pre-holiday production surge as factories strive to meet deadlines. Post-holiday, it may take weeks for production to return to normal, leading to delays in order fulfillment.
  2. Increased Freight Transportation Rates
    The rush to ship goods before the holiday drives up demand for freight services, leading to elevated transportation costs. Ocean, air, and land freight rates often see significant increases, with carriers implementing peak season surcharges.
  3. Congestion and Shipping Delays
    Ports and logistics networks become congested before and after the holiday as shipments are expedited pre-CNY and backlogs are processed post-CNY. This often results in delays in transit and limited container availability, causing ripple effects across supply chains.
  4. Decreased Workforce and Slower Operations
    A large portion of the workforce takes extended leave, reducing staffing levels at factories, ports, and transportation hubs. Slower processing times may persist even after the official holiday period.

Can the President-Elect Enact Broad Tariff Measures?

President-elect Trump has proposed significant tariffs, including:

  • A 10–20% blanket tariff on all imports.
  • Up to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
  • 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

While immediate implementation of such tariffs poses challenges, legal frameworks grant the executive branch notable authority to act swiftly under certain conditions.

Legal Authority for Presidential Tariff Implementation

  1. Congressional Delegation of Power
    Although the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to impose taxes, including tariffs, trade laws have delegated substantial authority to the president. This allows for tariff imposition without congressional approval, bypassing typical checks and balances.
  2. Mechanisms for Tariff Imposition
    • Trade Laws (1930s–1970s): Allow the president to impose tariffs to address unfair trade practices. These measures, however, require investigations and public notice periods, making immediate action less feasible.
    • International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977: Enables the president to act swiftly against “extraordinary” threats. This mechanism could bypass traditional reviews and public input, allowing rapid implementation, though its scope and legality remain debated.

While imposing tariffs immediately is complex, IEEPA provides a legal pathway for rapid action. However, the economic and diplomatic consequences of such measures require careful consideration.

MARKET WATCH

Ocean Freight

Transpacific Rate Market and Trends

Transpacific Rates and Market Dynamics: 
Transpacific trade lanes are experiencing relative stability as carriers manage capacity through blank sailings and cautious adjustments. Rates are steady heading into 2025, influenced by balanced supply-demand dynamics.

Carrier Strategy: 
Carriers are employing strategic capacity management, including blank sailings, to stabilize rates during slower demand periods. These tactics are helping mitigate the impact of fluctuating volumes and maintain a balanced market.

North and South American Rate Trends

North America:

  • Rates remain stable, showing a slight decrease in both West Coast and East Coast lanes due to the resolution of ILA Labor Disputes.

North Asia to West Coast South America (WCSA):
Overcapacity and reduced demand are exerting downward pressure on rates.

North Asia to East Coast South America (ECSA):
Modest rate increases are noted due to seasonal demand shifts.

European & APAC Updates

Europe:
Spot rates on Asia-Europe lanes remain stable as carriers prioritize flexible contracts to optimize revenue. This strategy is helping maintain equilibrium amid fluctuating demand.

APAC:

East Coast North America (ECNA):
Rate increases driven by GRIs and labor-related uncertainties.

West Coast North America (WCNA):
Rates are climbing due to strong demand and constrained capacity, reflective of the market’s tight dynamics.

APAC markets exhibit resilience despite varying regional demands, supported by proactive carrier strategies.

Air Freight

  • Spot Rates:

    • Air freight spot rates are on an upward trajectory, propelled by sustained e-commerce growth and robust demand in key trade lanes. Asia-Pacific lanes saw an 8% week-over-week increase in late December 2024, with similar trends observed in African and European markets.

    Yearly Trends:

    • The Middle East and South Asia are becoming increasingly pivotal, with 2024 seeing a 62% rate increase. Asia-Pacific and Europe also recorded 19% growth each, signaling a shift in trade flows and market priorities. For 2025, these trends are expected to intensify, supported by expanded air freight capacity and improved operational efficiencies.

Domestic

Less-Than-Truckload (LTL):

GRI (General Rate Increases) Season is Here

As the year progresses, carriers are prioritizing tighter control over operating costs and pricing strategies. General rate increases (GRIs) in the mid-single to low double digits have been announced. At the same time, some carriers are introducing strategic pricing adjustments to attract new volume in lanes with excess capacity.

Strengthening Relationships with Providers

Now more than ever, building strong relationships with your transportation providers is essential. Partnering with reliable providers and exploring new opportunities can help optimize your supply chain and mitigate costs.

A key industry trend is moving away from viewing transportation as a simple “commodity.” Collaborating effectively with your 3PL can significantly influence costs. A 3PL offers access to diverse carriers and additional capacity, but the way you engage with your 3PL impacts the overall cost to serve your business.

Efficiency Drives Cost Savings

For instance, quoting, booking, and tendering shipments across multiple emails can increase costs due to the added administrative effort required. On the other hand, customers who leverage a Transportation Management System (TMS) for their Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) shipments often benefit from more competitive rates. This streamlined process reduces manual tasks for the 3PL, resulting in cost efficiencies that can be passed on to you.

By embracing efficient practices and fostering strong partnerships, you can navigate the GRI season with greater confidence and cost control.

Need Help Navigating the Current Freight Market?

Contact Our Procurement Team

đź“° IN OTHER NEWS…

CBP unveils its proposed changes to rules on low-value imports

The US Customs & Border Protection (CBP) agency yesterday unveiled its much-awaited proposals to amend de minimis, or Entry of Low -Value Shipments (ELVS), rules.
While the de minimis level of $800 will not change, CBP is keen to ensure that more data on low-value shipments is received. It said: “Today’s rule-making update focuses on data entry.”
Read More

Vietname sets new records for exports in 2024, runs trade surplus for 9 straight years
The Southeast Asian country’s import-export turnover also hit an all-time high of $786.3 billion last year, picking up 15.4 percent over 2023.
Read More

Ripples from 2025 CNY ‘may still be rocking the boats in summer’
Danish forwarder DSV has warned that ripples from the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday could be felt into the second half of the year, as the looming alliance reshuffle would exacerbate network disruption and lead to surcharges and blank sailings.
Read More

New Tariffs Are Coming. here’s How to Prepare.
No one yet knows what trade policies President-elect Trump will enact once in office, but three things are clear: First, during his first term, he imposed new punitive tariffs. Second, he has repeatedly said he plans to levy new or increased tariffs quickly once inaugurated for his second term. Third, US trading partners could—and probably would—retaliate with measures of their own.
Read More

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As of January 10, 2025, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative six-year master contract agreement, averting a potential strike at East and Gulf Coast ports.

What We Know…

Key Outcomes of the ILA-USMX Tentative Agreement

  1. Wage Increase: Dockworkers are set to receive a substantial pay raise of nearly 62% over the six-year period.
  2. Automation Restrictions: The agreement introduces new limitations on automation to protect existing jobs. Employers planning to implement technologies, such as semi-autonomous cranes, are required to hire additional dockworkers for each new piece of equipment. Full automation and the use of artificial intelligence that could replace workers remain prohibited.
  3. Port Modernization: While restricting automation, the deal allows for the introduction of new technologies aimed at modernizing ports, enhancing safety, and improving efficiency without reducing staffing levels.
  4. Economic Stability: The agreement is expected to stabilize supply chains and cargo prices, preventing disruptions that a strike could have caused. Major stakeholders, including the National Retail Federation, view this development as crucial for port modernization and supply chain resilience.
  5. Government Involvement: The Biden administration played a role in facilitating the agreement, emphasizing its benefits for workers and the economy.

The tentative agreement is subject to ratification by ILA members, a process expected to take several weeks. Until then, operations will continue under the current contract to ensure uninterrupted port activities.

Additionally, the ILA credited President-elect Donald Trump for his support during the negotiations, highlighting his opposition to automation that could harm American workers.

This development has been met with relief by various industries, including the apparel sector, which views the agreement as crucial for maintaining supply chain stability during a critical time.

đź“° Additional Articles and Resources…

US port strike called off as ILA and USMX reach ‘tentative’ agreement
Shippers can breathe a sigh of relief, the east and Gulf coast port strike slated to start next week looks set to be called off – and freight rates could ease.
Read More

ILA, USMX reach tentative deal on 6-year contract
The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance reached a tentative agreement on a six-year contract covering workers at East and Gulf Coast ports, according to a joint statement released Wednesday night.
Read More

Statement from President Joe Biden on the ILA and USMX Tentative Agreement
Collective bargaining plays an important role when it comes to building a strong economy from the middle out and the bottom up.
Read More

With Port Strike Averted, Dockworkers Draw New Curbs on Automation
Unionized dockworkers secured a big pay raise and new guardrails against future uses of technology at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in a tentative labor deal reached with employers about a week before a strike deadline.
Read More

Second US port strike averted as union, employers reach deal
The union representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts and their employers on Wednesday said they reached a tentative deal on a new six-year contract, averting further strikes that could have snarled supply chains and taken a toll on the U.S. economy.
Read More

Need Help Navigating the Current Freight Market?

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Visibility done right so that you can manage compliance, budget and expectations. Empowering you to confidently control your supply chain and deliver happiness to your customers.

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We are ready to help

We have team members ready to answer your questions.
Give us a call 516.593.5871 or chat on our website 💬

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As 2025 unfolds, the global freight and logistics landscape feels like a blend of calm before the storm and cautious anticipation. The transpacific sea freight market shows signs of stability, a welcome reprieve for shippers after a turbulent year, yet the looming East Coast port strike casts a shadow of uncertainty. Carriers are working strategically to steady the ship with blank sailings and capacity management, but tensions remain palpable. Meanwhile, air freight is soaring on the momentum of a record-breaking 2024, bringing hope for resilience despite persistent capacity challenges.

Closer to home, trucking markets are inching upward, offering mixed signals as shippers brace for significant changes to NMFC classifications. It’s a time for agility and foresight, as surcharges, labor negotiations, and shifting rates continue to shape a rapidly evolving supply chain. In the midst of these challenges, the industry’s resilience and adaptability shine as a beacon for navigating another pivotal year in global trade.

MARKET WATCH

Ocean Freight

Transpacific Rate Market and Trends

  1. Transpacific Rates and Market Dynamics: 
    Spot rates on the Transpacific trade lanes have largely stabilized, with minimal changes following the December peak. Rates are expected to remain steady into early January, supported by blank sailings and cautious market conditions post-holiday rush.
  1. East Coast Port Strike Looms:
    The potential January 15 International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike remains a significant concern. Negotiations between the ILA and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) are ongoing, with no resolution in sight. The uncertainty has prompted some shippers to reroute cargo through West Coast ports, creating localized rate pressures. East Coast operations face potential disruptions, with mixed sentiment on long-term impacts.
  1. Carrier Strategy: 
    Carriers continue leveraging blank sailings and strategic capacity management to stabilize rates during the slack season. While rates to the West Coast have seen slight upward pressure, the east-to-west cargo migration trend could ease strain on East Coast ports if a strike occurs.

North and South American Rate Trends

  • North America:
    • West Coast rates remain steady, with isolated increases attributed to rerouted cargo and blank sailings. East Coast rates face uncertainty amid ILA-related concerns.
  • South America:
    • North Asia to West Coast South America (WCSA):
      • Rates have softened due to reduced demand and overcapacity.
    • North Asia to East Coast South America (ECSA):
      • Rates have seen modest increases driven by seasonal demand shifts.

Panama Canal Transit Surcharges (Effective January 1, 2025) – $40/TEU

CMA CGM: Panama Canal transit surcharge applies to Asia-USEC services.

MSC: Panama Canal surcharge applies from Southeast Asia, China, Korea, and Japan to USEC and Gulf.

These surcharges come as the Panama Canal Authority modifies its transit reservation system and tariffs. Expect a ripple effect on USEC rates as carriers pass these costs to shippers.

European & APAC Updates

  • Europe:

    • Spot rates on Asia-Europe lanes remain stable as carriers delay long-term contract negotiations, aiming to benefit from higher FAK rates.
  • APAC:

    • East Coast North America (ECNA):
      • Rate increases driven by General Rate Increase (GRI) implementations and uncertainty surrounding the ILA strike.
    • West Coast North America (WCNA):
      • Rates have also increased, reflecting stronger demand and tight capacity management.

Overall, APAC markets show resilience amid regional demand fluctuations and proactive carrier strategies.

Air Freight

  • Spot Rates:

    • As we step into 2025, the air freight market is expected to maintain its upward momentum in spot rates, reflecting the peak seen in late 2024. Global air freight rates hit a year-high in December 2024, with a 4% week-over-week increase. This trend is poised to continue as demand stabilizes at elevated levels. Asia-Pacific lane rates showed remarkable resilience with an 8% weekly increase during the same period, mirroring growth trends observed in African and European markets. For 2025, these regions are anticipated to see further rate adjustments driven by robust demand and capacity constraints.
  • Yearly Trends:

    • Air freight rates from the Middle East and South Asia region have increased to an unprecedented 62% in 2024, illustrating their increasing importance to global trade. Origin markets in Asia-Pacific and Europe grew at around 19% and 19% respectively. Against the backdrop of these shifts in the dynamics of trade, economic recovery, and increasing e-commerce volume, 2025 will reinforce this trend moving forward. Pricing and operational dynamics will be influenced by the continued growth in air freight capacity and improved efficiency of the supply chain.

Domestic

  • Less-Than-Truckload (LTL):

Changes coming to NMFC classifications in 2025
The NMFTA is in the process of making changes to the NMFC classification system. Changes will not go into effect until May of next year, but it is going to impact many shippers.
NMFTA initially announced they would be changing over 5,000 NMFC item numbers to a density-based scale. The most recent update listed over 3,000 of those items as Out of Scope for the 2025-1 docket. Reviews are ongoing and the final list will be available in January.

Here’s a timeline of the changes:

  • January 2025: Docket 2025-1, a list of NMFC items that are potentially going to change, will be available for review.
  • March 2025: The NMFTA will hold a public meeting to discuss the changes.
  • May 2025: NMFC changes will go into effect.

To stay updated, visit the 2025 NMFC Changes page on the NMFTA site.

  • Truckload (FTL):

    In November, we saw overall truckload rates climb 2.4% month-over-month (M/M), trending up slightly after several weeks of stagnation.Looking at equipment types, dry van (1.8%) went up a notch, refrigerated moved up 3.5%, and open deck moved down -1.6%. Looking at year-over-year (Y/Y) comparisons, we continued our venture into inflationary territory in total (12.0%), dry van (12.0%), reefer (12.3%), and flatbed (4.7%).

Chinese Holiday Schedule 2025

New Year:
January 1st:
1 day

Chinese New Year:
January 28th – February 4th,
8 days

Tomb Sweeping day:
April 4th – April 6th
3 days

Labor day:
May 1st – May 5th
5 days

Dragon Boat festival:
May 31st – June 2nd
3 days

Mid-Autumn Festival:
October 1st – October 8th
8 days

Need Help Navigating the Current Freight Market?

Contact Our Procurement Team

đź“° IN OTHER NEWS…

Suez toll revenue drops 60%; canal tests two-way traffic
Suez Canal revenue has plunged 60% this year, a loss of $7 billion for Egypt, amid attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and ongoing regional tensions.
Read More

Trump’s tariffs: A boost for domestic trucking demand
Over the past few months, a number of folks in the media have compared tariffs to sales taxes. While tariffs are a form of taxation, they are fundamentally different from sales taxes.

Tariffs are imposed at the import stage based on the declared value of goods, which does not include subsequent costs like labor, marketing or retailer profit margins. Consequently, the effect of a tariff on the retail price is typically less than the tariff rate itself.
Read More

Cape of Good Hope detours look set to continue until ‘August, at least’
The impending network changes made by the big container lines look set to ensure continuation of services around the Cape of Good Hope until the latter half of 2025.
Read More

Container imports to surge ahead of strike, tariffs, NRF predicts
Containerized imports are expected to continue to surge through U.S. ports into the new year as shippers look to beat a possible strike by East and Gulf Coast longshore workers and planned tariffs by the incoming Trump administration, according to a new forecast.
Read More

Borderlands Mexico: Mexican government aims to regulate Asian e-commerce imports
The Mexican government plans to enforce new customs regulations affecting e-commerce imports into the country starting in January.

The requirements — which include additional documentation and more detailed product information for cross-border transactions — are aimed at cutting down on tax fraud, smuggling and other violations.
Read More

Have you met Captain?

Our End-to-End Visibility Platform
Visibility done right so that you can manage compliance, budget and expectations. Empowering you to confidently control your supply chain and deliver happiness to your customers.

Contact Us for a Demo Today!

We are ready to help

We have team members ready to answer your questions.
Give us a call 516.593.5871 or chat on our website 💬

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