Market Update: Freight Rates Decline in Most Markets

As of September 2024, the freight market was navigating a dynamic and challenging environment shaped by an impending East Coast port strike, the approach of China’s Golden Week holiday, and an air freight peak season poised to be unusually strong. Sea freight was experiencing rate fluctuations across virtually every trade lane, while the air sector was bracing for record e-commerce volumes. Strategic planning and timely bookings were essential for any shipper moving cargo in Q4 2024.

This update covers the key developments across ocean and air freight that were shaping importer decisions heading into the final quarter of the year.

Market Watch: Ocean Freight

Ocean freight conditions in September 2024 were driven by a single overriding question: would the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike on October 1? That uncertainty was reshaping volume flows, rate trajectories, and carrier blank sailing strategies across all major trade lanes simultaneously.

Asia to North America

Rates continued to decline on the Asia to North America trade lane despite the prospect of a looming East Coast port strike. The expected pre-Golden Week cargo surge that carriers had hoped would support rates failed to materialize for two reasons: U.S. inventory levels remained elevated, and shippers were deliberately delaying East Coast bookings to wait out the ILA situation.

Key developments for this trade lane:

• Significant blank sailing announcements from major carriers to support rate floors
• Rates expected to hold firm through September 30, with further reductions likely for USWC, USEC, and Gulf Coast after Golden Week (October 1–7)
• Shippers with flexible routing were pre-booking West Coast space as an ILA hedge
• Golden Week cargo cutoffs were clustered around September 25–28 — bookings past those dates faced rollover risk into mid-October sailings

For importers with Q4 inventory requirements, the window to book was narrow. Monitoring the ILA contract situation in real time — possible with a Control Tower platform — allowed operations teams to make routing decisions as new information emerged rather than committing blindly weeks in advance.

Europe to North America

The North Continent to East Coast North America trans-Atlantic route was one of the few lanes experiencing continued demand growth in September 2024. Several factors combined to support rates on this lane:

• Capacity management by carriers had tightened available space
• Sourcing shifts from Asia to the EU created additional westbound demand
• Importers were advancing orders to arrive before the potential October 1 strike

In the event of an ILA strike, carriers indicated they would offer services routing via Canadian ports, but warned that space and connections were limited and would likely not absorb all redirected volume. Halifax and Montreal had finite capacity, and transshipment delays would add 3–7 days to delivery timelines even on cargo that successfully rerouted.

India to North America

Rates from the Indian Subcontinent to North America continued to decline in September. The primary driver was the same as on the Asia-USEC lane: shippers were hesitant to commit to East Coast bookings ahead of the strike deadline. Carriers responded with competitive pricing to maintain vessel utilization on the lane as volume softened.

Asia to Europe

European container markets continued declining as importers had pulled forward holiday goods inventory in advance. The Red Sea diversion situation — which had added 8–14 days to Asia-Europe transits since early 2024 — was creating a structural capacity squeeze even as spot demand weakened. The combination of longer transits and softening demand meant carriers were absorbing both higher operating costs and lower rates simultaneously.

East Coast Port Strike: What It Meant for Importers

The ILA-USMX contract expiration on September 30 represented one of the most significant structural risks for U.S. importers in a generation. With 43–49% of all U.S. container imports moving through East and Gulf Coast ports, the potential disruption was not theoretical — it was existential for supply chains with USEC concentration.

The supply chain challenges of a port strike compound quickly: cargo rolls at origin, vessels queue at anchor, chassis become unavailable at the port, and rail networks downstream back up. What starts as a port disruption becomes a multi-modal system failure within 72 hours. Importers who had built supply chain risk management contingency plans before the deadline were significantly better positioned than those who waited.

Market Watch: Air Freight

While ocean rates softened, the air freight market was moving in the opposite direction. September 2024 marked the beginning of what industry sources described as a potentially unprecedented peak season for air cargo.

Asia to North America and Europe

The air freight peak season traditionally runs from September through December, driven by holiday e-commerce and consumer electronics launches. In 2024, two additional factors amplified the usual pattern:

1. Apple iPhone 16 launch: High-value electronics shipments by air began in September, absorbing significant belly capacity on transpacific routes ahead of the consumer launch cycle
2. Red Sea diversion overspill: Some time-sensitive ocean cargo that could not wait for extended transit times converted to air, adding structural demand on top of seasonal peaks
3. E-commerce surcharge season: Early-season demand for holiday inventory combined with direct-to-consumer fulfillment volumes compressed available capacity before the traditional peak began

Industry sources were signaling that peak season 2024 air rates would exceed prior years. Shippers relying on air freight as a port-strike contingency needed to book early — available capacity was already tightening before the strike risk fully materialized.

Operational Guidance: What to Do in a Declining-Rate, Strike-Risk Environment

The September 2024 market environment required a balance of opportunism (locking favorable ocean rates before post-Golden Week recovery) and risk management (protecting against disruption). Here is the operational playbook that well-prepared importers were executing:

For Ocean Freight

1. Book ahead of Golden Week cutoffs — September 25–28 was the window; cargo that missed it faced rollover into mid-October sailings with disruption uncertainty
2. Split volume between USEC and USWC — diversified routing reduced single-port concentration risk without fully committing to the more expensive West Coast alternative
3. Use transloading for flexibility — West Coast arrival with rail-to-truck inland delivery preserved delivery timelines even if USEC ports were disrupted
4. Monitor blank sailing announcements — carriers were actively managing capacity, and space availability was shifting week-to-week

For Air Freight

• Pre-book peak season capacity for time-sensitive SKUs before October rate increases took effect
• Evaluate air as a genuine contingency for USEC-bound high-value cargo — the rate premium was more predictable than the strike disruption risk
• Track iPhone 16 and major consumer electronics launches that consume belly capacity, creating rate spikes even for non-electronics shippers

For Tariff Planning

The September 2024 market coincided with heightened tariff mitigation strategies activity, as the U.S. election approached and potential 2025 tariff changes became a topic for supply chain planning. Using a tariff calculator to model landed costs across different origin countries and routing scenarios gave procurement teams the data to make Q1 2025 sourcing decisions that would age well regardless of political outcomes.

Teams that wanted to track ocean, air, and land freight from a single platform were able to manage the September 2024 complexity far more efficiently than those relying on carrier-by-carrier tracking and manual status updates. The combination of rate volatility, strike uncertainty, and peak season timing compression made consolidated visibility not just convenient but operationally essential.

The ILA ultimately reached a temporary wage agreement in early October 2024, averting the immediate strike. However, the automation dispute that was the deeper driver of the labor tension remained unresolved — making USEC strike risk a recurring feature of the freight market landscape, not a resolved one-time event.