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Impending Strike Casts a Shadow of Uncertainty
The shipping industry is currently navigating a volatile landscape, driven by global economic factors and looming disruptions. As East Coast ports face the potential of an International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike, shippers are eyeing potential surcharges for mid-October. This uncertainty is causing a shift in volumes toward West Coast ports, particularly as rates on Asia to North America routes continue to decline ahead of the Golden Week holiday (October 1–7, 2024). In contrast, the Europe to North America trade lane is witnessing steady demand, with a potential rise in rates expected for October, driven by strong carrier utilization.
The Indian Subcontinent to U.S. East Coast rates have also taken a hit, largely due to concerns over the possible strike, while Asia to Europe markets are declining in preparation for Golden Week. As shipping volumes slow and carriers adjust schedules, stakeholders must brace for fluctuating rates and strategic shifts as we enter Q4 and beyond.
MARKET WATCH
Ocean Freight
East Coast Port Strike
Please see our focus piece on all things EC strike and ILA.
Asia to North America
Rates continue to decline with no pre-Golden Week surge, as volumes shift to West Coast ports. Potential port surcharges may occur in mid-October due to a possible ILA work stoppage. Golden Week is from October 1-7, 2024. Ocean freight rates are extended until October 14, with further reductions likely for the U.S. Southwest, East Coast, and Gulf Coast.
In Q4, we expect high volumes driven by the U.S. elections, potential 2025 tariffs, and an early Lunar New Year, though demand remains flat.
Indian Subcontinent
Container freight rates from the Indian Subcontinent to the US East Coast fell in the week ending Sept. 20, driven by concerns over a potential strike on the US East Coast. Demand from India and Asia slowed, prompting carriers to adjust rates. Rates for Canadian ports like Halifax, which had previously risen, also dropped, as it was deemed unlikely to serve as an alternative if the strike occurs due to potential congestion. Rates from North Asia to the Indian Subcontinent also declined, with carriers offering competitive prices to fill vessels. Meanwhile, short-haul rates from West Coast India to the Middle East remained stable but slightly decreased as seasonal cargo shipments slowed.
Asia to Europe
European container markets continued to decline as shippers prepared for the Chinese Golden Week holidays. Early peak season planning led to a slowdown in freight movement, exacerbated by longer transits due to Red Sea diversions. Rates into North Europe dropped significantly, with westbound movements from Asia falling on the week, though still much higher year-on-year due to container ship rerouting. Similar trends were seen in rates into the Mediterranean, which also declined. Experts anticipate rates will stabilize after the holiday season, as carriers implement blank sailings to manage supply amid weak demand.
Air Freight
Asia to North America/Europe
Global air cargo rates continue to rise in line with holiday season.
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