MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 25TH, 2024
CT MarketWatch: Post Golden Week Boom Triggers GRI
Global shipping and logistics continue to feel the impacts of heightened demand following China’s Golden Week. Carriers are implementing a General Rate Increase (GRI) on Asia-to-North America routes starting November 1, alongside increased blank sailings on the U.S. East Coast as volumes rise. The approaching U.S. election and concerns over a possible strike tied to the new ILA deadline in January could further elevate import volumes. Meanwhile, rail congestion at LA/LB ports has reached a two-year high, delaying inland transportation significantly. Trans-Atlantic rates remain stable, while rates from the Indian Subcontinent continue to decline. Elevated air cargo rates persist globally.
MARKET WATCH
Ocean Freight
Asia to North America
Following the post-Golden Week surge in shipping demand, carriers have announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) effective November 1. The US East Coast (USEC) is expected to experience a high level of blank sailing in the coming weeks. We anticipate that USEC volumes will increase further in November, as US importers aim to receive their shipments as early as possible to avoid potential disruptions from a possible strike, with the new ILA deadline set for January 15. Additionally, it’s important to consider that volumes may surge again as we approach Lunar New Year on January 29, 2025. The upcoming US election could also drive a spike in imports if Trump wins and reintroduces his tariff plans. Carriers are currently dealing with significant rolling pools caused by backlogs built up after China’s Golden Week holiday in early October. Sailings from the US West Coast (USWC) have been especially impacted, reaching high rolling levels since last week.
Rail congestion at the LA/LB
Ports hit a two-year high due to record imports in September. The average on-dock dwell time is now 10 days, while off-dock cargo is waiting up to 17 days because of a shortage of railcars and space. In extreme cases, some containers are sitting for 4-6 weeks without moving. Major inland hubs like Chicago, Dallas, and Kansas City are also facing delays due to a lack of railcars. Some carriers, including ONE and EMC, are temporarily redirecting shipments to other ports to ease the situation, with the change expected to last 7-10 days.
Europe to North America
Trans-Atlantic rates have remained stable, with only slight reductions. Carriers expect rates to hold steady through October.
Indian Subcontinent
Container freight rates from the Indian Subcontinent to the US East Coast continue to fall.
Asia to Europe
Spot rates from North Asia to Europe held steady, benefiting from carrier-led blank sailings and high ship utilization. The market is watching for potential rate increases in November as carriers test demand.
Air Freight
Asia to North America/Europe
Global air cargo rates continue to stay elevated.
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